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Jim Rogers: ‘This Is Artificial Floating Of Assets And It’s Going To End Badly’
Lots of Americans these days probably think higher stock and home prices reflect the economic reality of the times.
A strong economic recovery in America?
Try fiat currency printing presses around the world working overtime.
The famous investor Jim Rogers sat down with CNN International’s Nina Dos Santos, host of World Business Today, last Friday. From their exchange:
ROGERS: It’s the first time in world history, recorded history, when all major central banks at the same time are printing a lot of money. The Japanese in December said “we will print unlimited amounts of money.” So the Americans said “we can do that!”
DOS SANTOS: You don’t agree with that strategy?
ROGERS: No, of course not. Debasing your currency sometimes works in the short-term. It has never worked in the long-term. And it doesn’t ever usually work in the medium-term. Debasing your currency- lots of politicians like to do it because it’s an easy way. But then the Americans said “we’ll print money.” And then the English said “well, we’ll print money.” And the Europeans of course. This is artificial floating of assets and it’s going to end badly.
“Rogers: Printing money is unsustainable”
CNN International Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Gerald Celente Sees Interest Rates Going Up, Housing Slowing Down, Economy Going Down
One of the “crash prophets” who correctly-predicted the 1998 global economic crisis is trends forecaster Gerald Celente. The founder and director of The Trends Research Institute appeared on RT America last Thursday and echoed what a number of his fellow “crash prophets” (Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff) are saying these days about money printing and rising asset prices. Celente told viewers:
This is a known strategy. That by lowering interest rates, more money would flow into the equity markets. They knew this. We said this when it was happening when they were starting to do it. So that’s been boosting up the stock market.
And again, the only thing that’s keeping any of this going- not only in the U.S., in the U.K., now in Japan, in the European central banks- they’re all dumping money into the system and lowering interest rates. That’s the only thing that’s keeping it alive, and that’s what propping up the stock market.
Celente- who’s been forecasting trends since 1980- shared his outlook for the next year:
Our forecast for 2013 is more of the same- but worse. We see recession on the horizon. There’s going to be a point… when they have to raise interest rates because of the debasement and the devaluation of the currencies.
When that happens, you’re not going to see homes bought the way they are now. You’re going to see a slow down across the board.
Again, the only thing that’s keeping this going is the cheap money, these zero interest rates, not only in the U.S. but in Japan, around the world.
It’s a currency war. Everyone knows it.
At some point, the interest rates are going to go up. And the economy is going to go down.
“Gerald Celente – RT America with Liz Wahl – January 31, 2013 “
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Jim Rogers Warns ‘Horrible Headache’ Coming For U.S. Between End Of 2013 And 2015
Investor, financial commentator, and author Jim Rogers recently appeared on the Yahoo! Finance show The Daily Ticker. Lauren Lyster interviewed the former investing partner of George Soros, who talked about a number of money-related topics in video released this morning. This included:
• Noting that gold and silver coins are “hot,” but he wouldn’t rush into them right now- “Don’t sell your gold and don’t sell your silver.”
• Predicting turmoil in currencies- “There is not a sound currency anymore.”
• Reiterating his belief in agriculture as a good investment- “I would rather own agriculture than anything.”
• Revealing he was interested in Russian rubles, Chinese renminbi
• Thinking about buying Japanese yen again
• Investing his family’s “human capital” in Asia
• Comparing America’s future to the decline of the U.K.
• Comparing China to America in the early 20th century
• Predicting China will have its share of setbacks like the U.S. did in the 19th century
• Declaring U.S. higher education a bubble
• Revealing he was “optimistic” on Russia and had invested there. Talked about how to do it.
• Revealing he had invested in North Korea. Talked about how he did that as well.
• Claiming U.S. stocks are going up because of money printing by central banks- “I mean, this is staggering what’s going on. It’s going to end so badly for all of us. We’re all going to wake up one day with a horrible headache. Probably 2014, 2015. Or the end of 2013.
Awesome exchange between Lyster and Rogers, which you can watch on the Yahoo! Finance site here and here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor’s notes: Info added to “Crash Prophets” page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Labor Minister: France ‘Is A Totally Bankrupt State’
Speaking of France, how is the Socialist-led European state faring these days?
Not so great, it seems.
In fact, a pretty reliable source claims they’re bankrupt.
Graham Ruddick reported on The Telegraph (UK) website Monday:
Michel Sapin made the gaffe in a radio interview, which left French President Francois Hollande battling to undo the potential reputational damage.
“There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state,” Mr Sapin said. “That is why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make us turn away from that objective.”
The comments came as President Hollande attempts to improve the image of the French economy after pledging to reduce the country’s deficit by cutting spending by €60bn (£51.5bn) over the next five years and increasing taxes by €20bn.
(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)
As I mentioned earlier tonight, some claim President Obama desires French-style Socialism for the United States.
If France’s economy truly is in shambles, and the U.S. President really wants to emulate them, well- here’s a glimpse of what Americans could expect. From an Investor’s Business Daily editorial yesterday:
Fresh after May 2012′s election, President Francois Hollande wasted no time raising government spending, hiking tax rates to 75% on those above $1.3 million in income, hiring 60,000 bureaucrats, cutting the retirement age for public pensions to 60 and undoing fiscal reforms by his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy. During his campaign, Hollande declared himself “the enemy of finance.” France today proves it…
Public debt has soared from 68% of GDP in 2008 to 90% in 2012, joblessness has hit 11%, and GDP growth of its $2.8 trillion economy is projected in 2013 at zero.
Tax hikes have driven the richest taxpayers from the country, making the $43 billion budget hole unlikely to be plugged by Hollande’s $26 billion tax hike. Meanwhile, a squeeze on business creates rising numbers of unemployed, who in turn demand state services.
Time will tell how this will all work out for the Socialists in France. But if history rhymes once again, keep in mind something former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said in a 1976 interview:
Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s money. It’s quite a characteristic of them. They then start to nationalise everything, and people just do not like more and more nationalisation, and they’re now trying to control everything by other means. They’re progressively reducing the choice available to ordinary people.
Any of this sound familiar?
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Sources:
Ruddick, Graham. “France ‘totally bankrupt’, says labour minister Michel Sapin.” The Telegraph. 28 Jan. 2013. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9832845/France-totally-bankrupt-says-labour-minister-Michel-Sapin.html). 30 Jan. 2013.
“Like The Bourbons, France’s Socialists Have Learned Nothing, Forgotten Nothing.” Investor’s Business Daily. 29 Jan. 2013. (http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/012913-642388-france-socialist-model-is-same-old-recipe-for-bankruptcy.htm). 30 Jan. 2013.
Gold Flowing From West To East
“While the current world hubs for gold trading and storage are London, Zurich, and New York, stores of physical metal are also beginning to migrate east. Gold storage facilities are springing up all over Asia like mushrooms after a summer rain.”
-Tim Staermose, Chief Investment Strategist, SovereignMan.com, July 30, 2012
Some time ago, I remember well-known investor and China bull Jim Rogers say that capital is flowing from West to East.
I hear the gold is heading that way too these days.
Clementine Wallop pointed out on the Wall Street Journal website this morning:
Investors in Asia are increasingly dealing with a seemingly anachronistic problem: finding a place to stash their bars of gold.
Gold is a popular choice for those seeking to diversify their holdings and spread risk, but it isn’t the most mobile of assets. Still, gold has been moving east, and that has created opportunities for security companies in Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai—financial hubs where the metal’s popularity is soaring.
Security companies are busy ordering two-ton steel doors and sophisticated monitoring systems, and hiring more armed guards as they expand their high-security vault capacity in Asia…
“Asians Using Gold Vaults to Store Designer Bags”
WSJ Video
So are Western vaults no longer a safe place to store gold bullion? Not necessarily. Wallop added:
Vault operators say banks are among those seeking to spread their risk by holding gold in a variety of locations, rather than a single stronghold in London or Zurich.
She did note:
Some private investors fret about tougher rules and the scrutiny of Swiss and other Western banks, they say.
Still, reputation and the stability of the countries these vaults are located within remain a draw for many owners of the yellow metal.
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Source:
Wallop, Clementine. “Going for Gold? Don’t Forget the Vault.” Wall Street Journal. 20 Dec. 2012. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324461604578190841374704164.html). 20 Dec. 2012.
Gold Confiscation
One thing that’s probably entered the mind of anyone who owns physical gold is the threat of government confiscation. I’ve read quite a few articles over the last several years about that danger, and what Adrian Ash published on the website of the world’s largest online investment gold service and Survival And Prosperity advertising partner- BullionVault- was one of the more informative pieces I’ve read in quite some time. Ash, who runs the research desk over at the London-based company, wrote on December 7:
When Governments Steal Gold – 7 December 2012
Three nasty examples of how people lost the gold they owned…
CHATTER in the trading rooms says some gold owners fear a punitive US tax hike in New Year 2013, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault, with the Obama government targeting precious-metal investors.
Hence this month’s sell-off (or so the tittle-tattle says) – akin to the move by Japanese households to sell gold in late 2011 ahead of new reporting rules for precious-metals dealers.
In truth, such a US move looks very unlikely. Ahead of needing cross-party support to fix both the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling disaster, it would be clearly partisan. (Not all US gold investors are Republicans, but very few are Democrats in our experience.) And besides, gold already attracts the higher 28% rate of capital-gains tax in the US, since it is deemed a “collectible”. Easier to raise CGT rates across the board, and whack anyone trying to grow their savings in fair measure. It would raise far more revenue, too.
Still, this chit-chat does highlight a key point about gold – the fact that, within living memory, it got special ill-treatment from government everywhere. Western households were blocked from owning gold bullion for 30 years and more after the end of WWII. Over the 20 years previous, their gold had been variously nationalized, compulsorily purchased and stolen.
Not just investment-grade bullion. And not just gold belonging to private citizens either.
1935: Mussolini nabs 35 tonnes of gold wedding rings
The United States “confiscation” of 1933 is well-known (in fact a compulsory purchase, made at the then-price of $20.67 per ounce before the price was raised to $35.) But with gold still central to the monetary system, many governments were looking to acquire more. With a smile, of course.
December 1935 saw popular Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini appeal to the patriotism of Italy’s wives, urging them to swap their gold wedding bands for steel rings instead. Yes, really. On Wednesday the 18th, La Stampa gave over its entire front page to this financing drive:
• “The most noble rite of ‘faith’ joins all women in Italy in one heroic will” (‘fede’ meaning both ‘wedding ring’ and ‘faith’ – clever, eh?)
• “The Queen lays down her wedding ring upon the Altar of the Homeland”
• “The proud and moving offer of the women in Turin”Italian women were so “encouraged” by this popular show of patriotism that, fifty years later, they were still ashamed at being forced to part with their wedding rings. Mussolini got 35 tonnes all told. He ended upside down, hung on a meat hook from the roof of a petrol station.
1939: Nazi Germany steals Czech gold in London
You didn’t need to be a private individual, nor keep your gold at home, to lose precious metals in the 1930s. Little-recalled today, the Nazis’ theft of Czechoslovakian gold reserves caused such fuss in the British press in mid-1939 that the public was fully prepared for war by the time Germany invaded Poland in September.
The Bank for International Settlement had been established in 1930 to try and manage the fast-collapsing international Gold Standard. Based in neutral Switzerland, it was supposed to be above politics, and although its senior staff were all senior central bankers in their home countries, they played by a “gentlemanly” code of mutual support and respect. Unelected both then and now, central bankers held themselves to be noble and independent from the dirty business of democracy or dictatorship.
So when, on 20 March 1939, just after the Nazis marched into Prague, a message was sent to the BIS apparently by the Czech National Bank, the BIS duly passed the message on. It asked the Bank of England (then, as now, the world’s premier clearing point for physical gold) to move the metal held in BIS account No.2 to a new BIS account, No.17.
Never mind that the Czechs had already sent word that any instructions would come “under duress” and must be ignored. Never mind that the British parliament had put a freeze on all Czech assets, to defend them against Nazi theft. And never mind that the Bank of England knew BIS No.2 contained Czech gold, and that No.17 was held for the German Reichsbank. Because the Bank of England’s governor, Montagu Norman, was also a director of the non-political BIS. And he’d do anything to protect the noble independence of central bankers, applying their “gentlemanly” rules and so appeasing the Nazis one last time, by feigning ignorance of whose gold sat in those two anonymous BIS accounts.
The transfer was done before anyone outside the central banks knew, and the gold was then sold in just 10 days. By the time the story broke in May, the £6 million in proceeds was long gone. (We can find no reference to the transfer, nor to the national scandal starting in May, in Norman’s spidery-writing in his personal diary.)
1966: Britain starts prosecuting gold-coin investors
Two decades after the war ended, and 35 years after Britain quit the Gold Standard, its politicians were busy meddling with gold investment. Because the Pound was falling on the currency markets. So people were buying gold, sending money overseas to buy it and so hurting the UK’s already terrible balance of trade. Thereby hurting the Pound yet again.
To try and stem the slide, the Labour government put a block on imports of gold coin, and banned private citizens from owning more than four gold coins. Anyone with a bigger collection had to tell the Bank of England, whose officers would then judge whether the owner was a true collector, or a speculator.
Speaking in the (very heated) parliamentary debate of 13 June, the Conservative MP for Worthing, Terence Higgins, asked why the Government was attacking gold. “People are holding gold because they have no faith in the Government’s policy on the stabilization of the cost of living and on curtailing the rate of inflation…Will it take action against other specific assets which are a hedge against inflation?” (Indian households might ask the same today.)
But too bad – the “rule of four” went through (as it became known by retail dealers). By June 1967 some 4,847 people had submitted themselves to the Bank of England’s scrutiny, and prosecutions had begun. Exchange controls on gold were finally lifted by the first Thatcher administration’s first budget, in 1979.
The moral of these tales? Because gold is no longer central to the world’s monetary system, so-called “confiscation” looks a very 20th century phenomenon today. But that may well change. Exchange controls such as Britain had in the 1970s (and which Italy didn’t lose until 1999) are more likely. Because people, like governments, want to own gold when they fear inflation, financial strife or political crisis. Holding it at home could expose them to theft or coercion. If they hold it safely at arm’s length overseas, even a secure democratic jurisdiction requires clear ownership if you are retain control.
Be sure to get it if you’re thinking about Buying Gold any time soon.
Adrian Ash, 07 Dec ’12
(Editor’s note: Permission to republish the above material granted by BullionVault)
Signs Of The Time, Part 58
“You’re talking 70 million people on an island, all competing for the same resources. The most likely catastrophic situations that we could experience are natural disasters. I think there will be a new Dark Age. And I want to prep so that my children have a good chance of survival.”
-Edward O’Toole, science fiction author and British prepper
American preppers- meet your cousins from across the pond. From the Off-Grid website on November 30:
NAtGeo TV had a show in the UK last night about the growing number of British preppers – men and women who are preparing against future catastrophes ranging from economic collapse to electro-magnetic flares that knock out all electric equipment.
What they have in common is they are ready for a world without food distribution, and with no law and order…
You can read the rest of this interesting article on Off-Grid.net here.
China, Asia Still Pushing To Become World’s Financial Supercenter
Did you see that TV commercial during the run-up to Election Day?
You know, the one featuring the Chinese professor in 2030 lecturing his students about the fall of the American “empire” through foolish fiscal policies.
“Chinese Professor”
YouTube Video
Seeing that again (I heard a lot of people got angry when they saw it for the first time) reminded me of a number of pieces I came across prior to the global financial crisis rearing its ugly head in the fall of 2008 that spoke of Asia becoming the “supercenter” of global finance as the 21st century marched on. So much so that legendary stock investor Warren Buffett confidently announced:
The 19th century belonged to England, the 20th century belonged to the U.S., and the 21st century belongs to China. Invest accordingly.
Since those more visible days of the ongoing economic crisis, I haven’t encountered that same level of interest from the financial mainstream media about the flow of capital and jobs moving from West to East. Until recently, that is. Perhaps it’s because the whole thing didn’t come crashing down like a number of China/Asia observers had been saying it would? Who knows, but Huw Jones wrote on the Reuters website back on Halloween:
Hong Kong was named the world’s top financial center for the second year running by the World Economic Forum (WEF), thanks to the strength of its business environment, infrastructure and a favorable tax regime.
The WEF’s annual Financial Development Report considered a wide range of factors and underscored the rise of Asian trading centers and the influence of China as the world’s second-largest economy.
Rival surveys based purely on the total value of transactions typically put New York or London in top place.
However, stalling capital markets, sputtering economic growth and waning trust in financial organizations served to ensure that the top six positions remained unchanged from 2011, the WEF said.
The United States was the runner-up, Great Britain third, and Singapore fourth in the 2012 rankings.
In another study of global finance centers, the British were hanging on to the top spot- for now. Catherine Boyle wrote on the CNBC website this past Monday:
London is losing its crown in the battle of the global financial hot spots, with New York expected to overtake it this year as the biggest financial-services employer and Hong Kong and Singapore snapping at its heels.
Hong Kong will overtake London by 2015 if current trends in job cuts and moving business to the East continue, according to a new report by UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
Singapore’s emergence as a financial center is also changing the focus away from London, which has had the most city-type jobs since the turn of the twenty-first century.
It will be interesting to see how this all pans out down the road, but my gut tells me China/Singapore/Asia are on the road to becoming the world’s next financial supercenter- bar a complete disaster taking place. Even with a global economic crash, this region of the world appears to be in much better shape financially than its trading partners in the West, which will be vital in weathering the storm and the recovery phase. As for New York City and Wall Street? It may no longer be the center of world finance like it once was in such a scenario, but I would think it would continue to play a vital role in the global financial system, especially here in North America. The same can be said for London and Western Europe.
Down, but not out, I suspect.
Sources:
Jones, Huw. “Hong Kong named top financial center for second year.” Reuters. 31 Oct. 2012. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/31/us-financialcentres-wef-report-idUSBRE89U0BD20121031). 14 Nov. 2012.
Boyle, Catherine. “London Losing Its Crown in Battle of Financial Hubs.” CNBC. 12 Nov. 2012. (http://www.cnbc.com/id/49778263). 14 Nov. 2012.
Gold Entering Annual Sweet Spot?
This is the time of year gold traders get excited about. Don Vialoux wrote on The Globe and Mail (Canada) website yesterday:
The period of seasonal strength for gold bullion is approaching.
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
notes that the optimal time to invest in gold bullion for a seasonal trade is from July 12 to Oct. 9. The trade has been profitable during 11 of the past 14 periods. During the past 25 periods, gold bullion has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 4.7 per cent per period.
Demand and supply factors seem to be in gold’s favor. Vialoux pointed out:
Despite reduced demand for gold in India, prospects for the seasonal trade this year are higher than average. Demand for gold is increasing. Chinese consumer purchases of jewellery continue to increase.
Of greater importance, central banks including Russia, China and India are rumoured to be significant buyers. China continues to take action to diversify its reserves outside of U.S. dollar investments by adding to its gold holdings. China and India are rumoured to be buyers of gold for use in a gold-for-oil arrangement with Iran.
On the supply side, production from China, the world’s largest gold producer, is believed to be declining as older mines reduce production. Meanwhile, investor demand is increasing due to concerns that central banks are trying to stimulate their economies by essentially printing more money.
The United Kingdom and Europe and China announced additional monetary stimulus last week and a third quantitative easing program by the Federal Reserve during this summer is widely anticipated. More money chasing a relatively stable amount of gold will lead to higher gold prices.
Speaking of the United Kingdom, the London-based World Gold Council, the gold industry’s market development organization, released a research report yesterday entitled, “Gold as a strategic asset for UK investors.” From a press release:
The World Gold Council has today launched its latest research entitled “Gold as a strategic asset for UK investors”, which examines gold’s role within a sterling-denominated investment portfolio. Using data spanning over 25 years, the report demonstrates that an allocation to gold helps investors obtain equal or better average returns, while incurring less volatility and reducing the maximum monthly losses.
Against a backdrop of sustained market turmoil and wealth erosion, investors are seeking a trusted source of security for their holdings. The report shows how gold can fulfil this role by acting as a consistent portfolio diversifier – managing risk and mitigating potential losses in the portfolios of UK investors, an imperative in the prevailing environment…
Juan Carlos Artigas, Global Head of Investment Research commented:
“There is robust evidence for adding gold as a foundation to investors’ portfolios; risk-adjusted returns increase, losses diminish and capital is preserved. The optimal strategic allocation to gold for sterling-based investors ranges between 2.6% and 9.5% depending on their specific risk tolerance and assets they hold. This potential for investors to avoid a significant loss or increase portfolio gains, by adding gold, is especially important during extreme market events.”
And this morning, the World Gold Council issued a similar report for Japanese investors entitled, “Optimal Allocations to Gold for Japanese Investors.”
You can access both WGC reports on their website here.
(Editor’s note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Source:
Vialoux, Don. “Get ready for gold bullion’s season of strength.” The Globe and Mail. 10 July 2012. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/etfs/season-of-gold-bullion-strength-nearly-here/article4403228/?cmpid=rss1). 11 July 2012.
British Spymaster: London Olympics Attractive Target For Al-Qaeda
Anti-terror police arrest two men in east London
British counter-terrorism police on Thursday arrested two men aged 18 and 32 in east London in an operation that was aimed partly at protecting the London Olympics, sources told NBC News.
-MSNBC.com, June 28, 2012
With Al-Qaeda still lurking and the 2012 Summer Olympic Games to begin late next month, the head of Great Britain’s MI5 (Military Intelligence, Section 5- tasked with protecting the U.K. from terrorism/espionage) believes London will be a juicy target for terrorists. Ashis Ray wrote on the Times of India website yesterday:
A month before the London Olympics, head of Britain’s domestic spy agency said the games were an attractive target for terrorists and that some terror networks have thought about whether they could pull off an attack.
In a rare public speech on Monday, MI5 director-general Jonathan Evans though dispelled fears saying, “The Games are not an easy target and the fact that we have disrupted multiple terrorist plots here and abroad in recent years demonstrates that the UK as a whole is not an easy target for terrorism.”
The British spymaster talked about the threat posed by Al-Qaeda to our allies across the pond. From the article:
Scores of would-be British jihadis are travelling to Arab countries to be trained by al-Qaida. They are currently being trained in Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Somalia, Evans said. Figures last year suggested more than 100 Britons were absorbed by terror groups in Somalia.
It is suspected that many are now being prepared for terrorist attacks across Yemen, Egypt and Libya. Evans also suggested there could be a steady stream of new recruits from the UK. From a British domestic perspective, Evans said, “Some will return to the UK and pose a threat here. This is a new and worrying development.” Speaking about the threat perception in Britain, he said, “In back rooms, in cars and on the streets of this country there is no shortage of individuals talking about wanting to mount terrorist attacks here.”
If Al-Qaeda launches a terror attack at the Summer Olympics, how would they carry it out? Asian News International reported on June 20:
The former Head of Department of Asymmetric Threats at the Joint Military Intelligence Division, in Athens, Greece, Ioannis Galatas has suggested that the 2012 Olympic Games may be a launching pad for potential terrorist threats, including Al Qaeda’s ‘dirty bomb’ plans, even as the successor to the late Osama bin Laden and a medical doctor himself, Al-Zawahiri, struggled to regain “face” amongst extremists opposing the West.
There have been numerous terrorist attacks since New York’s “9/11″ but none quite matching its scale and impact, and perhaps this has been a matter of disruption, deterrence and, most disturbingly, patience.
However, Galatas suggested that such attacks have been thwarted by national security measures and intelligence, even as the threat of a CBRN attack, referring to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear, is ever present and it might also be the wild card that the terrorist networks, and “Al Qaeda” in particular are holding back.
“It is possible that Al-Qaeda’s success with the September 11 attacks has set the bar too high for its current CBRN capabilities. Al-Qaeda may be concerned that a CBRN attack that ‘only’ kills dozens of people would be perceived as a relative failure and demonstrate its weakened position relative to its pre-9/11 stature,” Galatas said.
Galatas added that there is no indication that Al Qaeda has abandoned its pursuit of CBRN weapons, including so-called “dirty bombs”.
“The possibility of a patient Al Qaeda is a disturbing possibility worth remembering,” he said.
“How Tough Is it to Build a Dirty Bomb?”
YouTube Video
Sources:
Ray, Ashis. “Britain fears al-Qaida may target Olympics.” Times of India. 27 June 2012. (http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-06-27/uk/32440844_1_al-qaida-qaida-jonathan-evans). 28 June 2012.
“London Olympics may be launching pad for ‘patient’ Qaeda’s ‘dirty bomb’ terror dreams.” Asian News International. 20 June 2012. (http://in.news.yahoo.com/london-olympics-may-launching-pad-patient-qaedas-dirty-113646870–spt.html). 28 June 2012.
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