University of Chicago Crime Lab

Second City Cop Blog Breaks Down Chicago Violence

“11 people have been killed and 11 wounded in shootings over a 48-hour period in Chicago from Tuesday afternoon to Thursday morning, Chicago police said…”

-ABC7 Chicago website Thursday afternoon

In the wake of a bunch of kids getting shot and killed in Chicago the last couple of days, the popular Chicago police blog Second City Cop explained very simply why the city is a shooting gallery. “SCC” wrote early Wednesday morning:

Gun laws go unenforced… Offenders are routinely released or sentenced to minimal time, so there’s nothing to fear from the judicial side of things- no consequences. No one in the “community” is willing to step up. Shame doesn’t work, appealing to a higher morality doesn’t work, humiliation doesn’t work…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Consider the following findings of a recently-released University of Chicago Crime Lab report entitled Gun Violence In Chicago, 2016 (blogged about here):

Individuals arrested for a homicide or shooting in Chicago in 2016 and 2015 had similar prior criminal records: around 90 percent had at least one prior arrest, approximately 50 percent had a prior arrest for a violent crime specifically, and almost 40 percent had a prior gun arrest. The average person arrested for a homicide or shooting in both years had nearly 12 prior arrests, with almost 45 percent having had more than 10 prior arrests, and almost 20 percent having had more than 20 prior arrests

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

SCC went on to add:

We guess it’s time to blame the police again…

And the Second Amendment. The NRA. Republicans. Trump. Bush. And on and on and on.

Yep. If there’s one thing “The Machine” has been good at, it’s directing Chicagoans’ attention away from the “unpleasant”…

“Hey you! Don’t watch that. Watch this!

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

“11 Killed, 11 Wounded In 48 Hours In Chicago Shootings.” ABC7. 16 Feb. 2017. (http://abc7chicago.com/news/11-killed-11-wounded-in-48-hours-in-chicago-shootings/1757827/). 16 Feb. 2017.

SCC. “Two? Seriously, TWO?” Second City Cop. 15 Feb. 2017. (http://secondcitycop.blogspot.com/2017/02/two-seriously-two.html). 17 Feb. 2017.

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Chicago’s 2016 Violence, ‘Fetal’ Policing Suggests Residents Focus On Personal Safety

Last Thursday, I wrote the following concerning some Chicago Tribune reader correspondence entitled “Letter: I’m leaving Chicago and I’m never coming back”:

I remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for the “Windy City.” That being said, I do believe conditions in the city will erode before improving again. For those dead set on remaining in town, please do yourself a favor and take a good, hard look at your financial and personal safety capabilities for successfully navigating any “storm” that may lie ahead. For example, how do your finances look with the real prospect of future tax hits down the road?

More later…

Later is today- as least as that bit about “personal safety capabilities” is concerned.

Regular readers of Survival And Prosperity know that the physical well-being of Chicagoans in the face of growing criminal threats has been a priority of this blog since its inception. A recent post on the popular Chicago police blog Second City Cop and a just-released report from the University of Chicago Crime Lab seem to justify such concern.

“SCC” posted the following on Second City Cop on December 29, which suggests the Chicago Police Department is becoming increasingly “fetal”:

[Chicago Police Superintendent Eddie Johnson] claims we’re “still policing” despite all evidence to the contrary:

-street stops down from 159,000 in 2015 to 21,000 in 2016
-property crime skyrocketing in formerly “quiet” areas
-arrest down tens of thousands
-a 20% homicide clearance rate

The list is near endless, and the price is paid in bodies…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Yesterday, the University of Chicago Crime Lab released a report entitled Gun Violence In Chicago, 2016, which utilized data obtained from the Chicago Police Department and other sources “to provide a more complete picture of the change in our city’s crime problem in 2016.”

The “change” was disturbing. From the report’s “Introduction”:

Between 2015 and 2016, Chicago experienced 58 percent more homicides and 43 percent more non-fatal shootings. Annual increases of this size are not unprecedented among American cities, particularly in recent years, but are rare for a city of Chicago’s size. One striking feature of Chicago’s increase in gun violence is how sudden it was: as of December 2015, there was no indication that gun violence was on the verge of rising sharply. But in January 2016, homicides and shootings surged relative to their 2015 levels and remained higher in almost every month that followed, threatening 20 years of progress on violent crime in Chicago…

What changed in Chicago was not so much the nature of our violence problem, but rather its prevalence. Most murders involved guns, occurred in public places, and stemmed from what police believe was some sort of altercation. This violence continues to be very regressive in its impact, disproportionately affecting the city’s most disadvantaged residents. Most gun violence victims and suspects were African American men, more often than not having had some prior encounter with the criminal justice system.

Compared to other cities, a larger share of homicide suspects in Chicago consists of adolescents, although the majority of all homicide suspects are in their 20s or older. The increase in gun violence occurred disproportionately in several disadvantaged neighborhoods on the city’s South and West sides, which now account for an even larger share of the city’s homicides. Another change is that from 2015 to 2016, the share of homicides that CPD believes stemmed from an altercation, as well as the share of homicide offenders who were recorded by CPD as having a gang affiliation, seemed to decline

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

“The share of homicide offenders who were recorded by CPD as having a gang affiliation, seemed to decline”

And here I was parnanoid about the tens of thousands of gang bangers infesting the city.

Further suggesting Chicagoans’ really need to look after their personal safety were these nuggets found within the report:

-“In 2016, 77 percent of gun homicides and shootings took place on the street or in an alley, up from 75 percent in 2015…”

-“Around 64 percent of homicides in 2016 were described by CPD as stemming from an altercation, down from 74 percent in 2015. Unless there was a change in how CPD recorded the circumstances of homicides from 2015 to 2016, this suggests that homicides stemming from other motivations increased more rapidly (by 121 percent) than did homicides stemming from an altercation (by 35 percent)…”

-“Individuals arrested for a homicide or shooting in Chicago in 2016 and 2015 had similar prior criminal records: around 90 percent had at least one prior arrest, approximately 50 percent had a prior arrest for a violent crime specifically, and almost 40 percent had a prior gun arrest. The average person arrested for a homicide or shooting in both years had nearly 12 prior arrests, with almost 45 percent having had more than 10 prior arrests, and almost 20 percent having had more than 20 prior arrests…”

-“The share of offenders with a current or prior gang affiliation, as noted by CPD, declined from 73 percent in 2015 to 67 percent in 2016, suggesting that individuals not affiliated with gangs may have been overrepresented among those driving the increase in violence…”

-“In 2016, Chicago police made 24 percent fewer arrests than in 2015, accelerating the steady downward trend in arrests the city has seen in recent years…”

-“Chicago police recorded over 80 percent fewer stops in January 2016 than they had in November 2015. This drop, from an average of over 50,000 stops per month in 2015 (through November) to approximately 10,000 stops per month starting in early 2016, began a few months before rates of gun violence in Chicago began to increase. What caused the decline is itself unclear. Several frequently-mentioned candidate explanations—the release of video footage showing the shooting by a CPD officer of teenager Laquan McDonald, announcement of a U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation of CPD, implementation of an agreement between the City and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) concerning street stops, and a new state law regarding street stops—all happened essentially within a few weeks of each other in late 2015 and early 2016…”

More on Chicago and personal safety later. In the meantime, head on over to the University of Chicago Crime Lab website here to read their entire report (.pdf file). It’s enlightening, to say the least.

By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Source:

SCC. “The War on Cops Continues.” Second City Cop. 29 Dec. 2016. (http://secondcitycop.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-war-on-cops-comtinues.html). 18 Jan. 2017.

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Chicago: 54 Shot, 8 Killed Over Labor Day Weekend

Labor Day Weekend is over. So is the summer slowdown on Survival And Prosperity. I guess it’s only appropriate the new “season” on the blog should kick-off with the following headline that’s making the rounds locally this morning. From the Chicago Tribune website:

“54 shot, 8 fatally, over Labor Day Weekend”

A year ago, those numbers were 40 shot, 3 killed.

It’s only a matter of time now before the gun “control” crowd is in the local media outlets calling for even more restrictions.

As they make their emotion-driven pleas, Chicagoans might want to keep the following in mind. Fran Main reported on the Chicago Sun-Times website on August 29:

Chicago criminals are finicky about how they get their guns, according to a new study by the University of Chicago Crime Lab.

In a survey of almost 100 detainees in the Cook County Jail, few said they get firearms at gun shows or through the Internet, said Harold Pollack, co-director of the crime lab. They also said they don’t normally steal guns or buy them at a licensed store

And most said they got the weapons through personal connections because they feared getting caught in a law-enforcement sting or being robbed by a stranger…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

Kind of derails the gun “control” narrative about gun show/Internet “loopholes” these days, doesn’t it? And from the University of Chicago no less. Still, a larger survey pool would have been nice here.

There’s also this gem (which I had been trying to find for a while now) from Angela Caputo on the website of nonprofit investigative news organization The Chicago Reporter back on December 19, 2013:

From January 2006 through August 2013, thousands of cases involving a weapons violation were thrown out in Cook County’s criminal courts, The Chicago Reporter found. More than 13,000 cases that included a gun violation have been dismissed during that period, shows the Reporter’s analysis of records maintained by the Clerk of the Circuit Court of Cook County. In fact, more felony cases involving a gun–from illegal possession to unlawful sale to a felon–have been thrown out than cases with any other type of charge…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

More gun “control” in the city after this Labor Day Weekend’s carnage? Please. That quote about insanity often attributed to Albert Einstein comes to mind here:

“Insanity- Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”

As those with brains figured out a long time ago, it’s not the legal gun owners who are behind this violence (although they make convenient scapegoats for the politicians and their ilk). It’s the criminals, who for the most part don’t obtain firearms legally (University of Chicago Crime Lab survey) and who roam the streets of Chicago with impunity because gun laws already on the books aren’t being enforced on a regular basis for one reason or another (Chicago Reporter).

What those reasons are requires scrutiny going forward. Then again, it would also mean some people with the power to make a real difference here would have to grow cajones too…

Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)

Sources:

Main, Frank. “Survey: Crooks get guns from pals, don’t keep them long.” Chicago Sun-Times. 29 Aug. 2015. (http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/7/71/915770/university-chicago-survey-finds-crooks-get-guns-from-pals-dont-keep-them-long). 8 Sep. 2015.

Caputo, Angela. “Thousands of felony gun cases are being dismissed in Cook County criminal courts.” The Chicago Reporter. 29 Dec. 2013. (http://chicagoreporter.com/thousands-felony-gun-cases-are-being-dismissed-cook-county-criminal-courts/). 8 Sep. 2015.

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Tuesday, September 8th, 2015 Crime, Firearms, Government, Legal, Self-Defense No Comments
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